PAKISTAN READER

Photo : Dawn

PTI to face challenges in maintaining control over members

In Brief
PAKISTAN ELECTIONS 2024
PR Exclusive Update #47
PTI to face challenges in maintaining control over members
On 17 January, Dawn reported that the challenges facing Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) will continue post elections, as former Chairman Barrister Gohar Ali Khan expressed concerns over potential “horse-trading.” With the Supreme Court upholding the Election Commission of Pakistan’s decision to revoke PTI's ‘bat’ symbol, candidates will now run as independents. The party also lost the right to nominate members for reserved seats. Experts note that the defection clause won’t apply, making it difficult for PTI to control members in the National Assembly. PTI aims to secure loyalty through undisclosed measures, possibly affidavits. Analysts suggest the matter may reach the Supreme Court for resolution, emphasizing the vulnerability of independent legislators to horse trading. (Amir Wasim, “ Situationer: No end in sight for PTI’s ‘tribulations’, even after polls,” Dawn, 17 January 2024)

Imran Khan unveils ‘Plan C’ for electoral surprise amid crackdown
On 17 January, Dawn reported that Imran Khan, despite a crackdown on his party, expressed optimism about the PTI’s electoral prospects in the forthcoming elections. He has revealed a ‘Plan C’ for 8 February elections after the failure of ‘Plan A’and ‘Plan B’. Though Khan did not reveal what this plan was, PTI Chairman Gohar Ali Khan had hinted that the party aimed to retain the reserved seats after losing the party’s symbol. PTI’s ‘Plan B’ was to forge a deal with its breakaway faction ‘PTI-Nazriati’ and contest elections under the symbol of ‘batsman’. This plan, however, was foiled by the ECP. Khan also claimed a conspiracy against PTI with 10,000 of its members being jailed. (Malik Asad, “PTI to spring surprise on Feb 8, claims Imran,” Dawn, 17 January 2024)

Electoral discourse in Pakistan: Urgent need for civility
On 17 January, an editorial in Dawn discussed the concerning state of political discourse in Pakistan, citing PML-N vice president Maryam Nawaz’s recent labeling of the PTI as a “terrorist” party as a regrettable low point. The article emphasizes the historical trend of acrimonious exchanges in Pakistani politics and highlights the dangerous escalation in using such loaded terms. It calls for political parties, especially in the upcoming elections, to exhibit restraint, foster respect, and avoid divisive rhetoric. It further underscores the lasting impact of campaign language on societal fabric and urges leaders to prioritize social harmony over divisive tactics. (“Electoral maturity,” Dawn, 17 January 2024)

Supreme Court’s PTI symbol verdict sparks concerns about democracy
On 17 January, Dawn reported that the Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa, upheld the Election Commission of Pakistan’s decision to strip the PTI of its election symbol, the bat. This controversial ruling criticized for its impact on political participation, forces PTI candidates to run as independents, raising suspicions of political manipulation just weeks before elections. The decision, coupled with internal judicial divisions, deepens public distrust in the judiciary’s impartiality. Concerns are raised about selective application of rules, contrasting the treatment of PTI with other parties. The judiciary’s role in safeguarding democratic rights is questioned, jeopardizing its credibility and Justice Isa’s reputation. (Zahid Hussain, “The judgement and after,” Dawn, 17 January 2024)

Election commission of Pakistan warns of potential delays amid symbol change requests
On 17 January, The News International reported that the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) announced the commencement of ballot paper printing for the 2024 elections but expressed concerns about potential delays in some constituencies due to numerous requests for symbol changes. The ECP warned that ongoing symbol alterations may necessitate reprinting, risking election postponement. With a 33 per cent increase in candidates from 2018, the ECP anticipates using 2,070 tons of paper for printing 260 million ballot papers. Despite concerns, a senior ECP official affirmed the elections would proceed on 8 February. The ECP directed officials to refrain from changing symbols, addressing complaints, including one from PPP. Some writ petitions were dismissed by the Peshawar High Court. (Amjad Safi, “Elections may be delayed in some constituencies: ECP,” The News International, 17 January 2024)

Political maneuvering in Balochistan elections
On 17 January, The News International reported that political dynamics in Balochistan remain uncertain as PML-N and PPP vie for dominance. PML-N, bolstered by electables, faces competition from PPP, which gained traction after former caretaker minister Sarfaraz Bugti joined the party.  Political analysts have stated that there is a strong possibility that PPP might win more seats in the province than PML-N referring to the “PPP central leaders’ softer attitude towards certain quarters.” JUI-F’s Maulana Fazlur Rahman is contesting from Balochistan for the first time for a National Assembly seat and has aligned with PkMAP PkMAP’s Mahmood Khan Achakzai for two seats. The former faces stiff competition from PTI in his constituency of Dera Ismail Khan. The Awami National Party, National Democratic Movement and Pakhtoonkhawa National Awami Party have also come together for seat adjustment. Rivalry has intensified between Sardar Akhtar Mengal and Jam Kamal. PTI has garnered support amongst the youth despite the absence of a significant presence in the region. All major parties will have to contend with internal dissent and rebels running independently. Balochistan’s electoral outcome hinges on the influence of key power-brokers. (Shahzada Zulfiqar, “PMLN, PPP both eye Balochistan seats — but will they get them?,” The News International, 17 January 2024)

An editorial in The News International on the importance of women representation
On 17 January, an editorial in The News International titled “Seats for women” has lamented the absence of women representation in policymaking space. The editorial has commended the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP)’s decision to make it mandatory for all political parties to submit a candidate list. This will help the ECP in overseeing that at least five percent of general seats are allocated to women for the upcoming elections. Despite being a requirement under the Election Act of 2017, this is often overlooked by parties. The editorial further argues that the absence of women in policymaking perpetuates challenges faced by women in a patriarchal society. The ECP’s move aims to address the issue of women’s underrepresentation on general seats, emphasizing the importance of equal participation. While the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has nominated 20 women candidates, the party faces challenges in obtaining an election symbol. The ECP’s directive seeks to encourage fair representation and empower women in the political arena. (“Seats for women,” The News International, 17 January 2024)
 
SECURITY
Opinion in Dawn on “the overall security picture in KP”
On 16 January, Ismail Khan in an opinion in Dawn titled “Uptick in terror attacks alarms KP security apparatus,” highlighted the escalating security situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) as the region has experienced a surge in militant attacks, particularly in the southern belt and merged tribal districts. Khan noted that numbers tell a partial story and can be misleading. Despite only ten out of 36 districts being classified as ‘normal,’ officials expressed divergent opinions on the overall security picture. Concerns were raised regarding the potential impact of the rising “militant attacks” before the elections, with 13 districts deemed “most sensitive” and 12 labelled “sensitive.” Khan emphasized the significant increase in terrorist incidents compared to the period preceding the 2013 polls, raising apprehensions about the safety of election campaigns and political figures. Comparing the situation to previous elections, the opinion states that “the overall security situation is not as bad as it was during the 2008 elections,” as then the militants “ruled the roost” throughout KP. The 2018 polls were “held in a relatively peaceful environment,” but the “alarming” factor of the 2024 elections is the level of militant activity. Multiple leaders of main political parties have “received warnings and threat alerts.” Despite this, security forces maintain that the situation is “manageable.” (Ismail Khan, “Uptick in terror attacks alarms KP security apparatus,” Dawn, 16 January 2024)
 
JUDICIARY
JIT formed to investigate social media campaign against SC judges
On 16 January, the caretaker government established a five-member joint investigation team (JIT) under the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA) 2016 to probe a “malicious social media campaign” against Supreme Court judges. The JIT, led by the additional director general of the Federal Investigation Agency’s cybercrime wing, will include representatives from the Intelligence Bureau, Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan Telecommunication Authority (PTA), and the deputy inspector general of Islamabad police. The team is allowed to have any other member if a need so arises. The JIT’s mandate is to “ascertain facts behind a malicious social media campaign,” identify culprits, and recommend preventive measures within two weeks. Within two weeks, the JIT is supposed to “submit a preliminary report to the Ministry of Interior.” (Iftikhar A Khan & Nasir Iqbal, “Govt forms JIT to probe drive against judges,” Dawn, 17 January 2024)
 
AF-PAK
Afghan Taliban threatens to permanently close Pakistan-Afghanistan borders over visa issue
On 16 January, the Afghan Taliban authorities threatened to permanently close the Torkham and Kharlaachi borders with Pakistan if a mutually agreeable solution is not found to the visa restrictions imposed on Afghan transporters. According to Dawn’s source, the threat came after a flag meeting between Pakistani and Afghan border security officials ended on a sour note. The Afghan authorities demanded a solution to the visa policy issue and insisted that all Afghan transporters stranded on Pakistani soil be allowed to return to their country before closing the border permanently. The source added that Afghan authorities asserted that since no prior formal intimation of the implementation of the visa policy was provided, the new restrictions were not acceptable to the Afghans. (Ibrahim Shinwari, “Torkham, Kharlaachi may be shut for good, warns Kabul,” Dawn, 17 January 2024)
 
Torkham border remains closed due to an impasse in talks
On 17 January, The Express Tribune reported that the Torkham border, a key crossing between Pakistan and Afghanistan, remained closed for the fourth consecutive day which was on 16 January. The shutdown began late night on 12 January and has continued since. Talks were held between relevant officials from both sides to resolve the issue but proved to be inconclusive. This has led to hundreds of trucks being stranded on both sides and loss of perishable goods and revenue for the cross-border traders. Pakistani authorities have argued that these visa restrictions are “aimed at improving security, preventing smuggling and promoting legal bilateral trade.” It is to be noted that on 1 November, 2023, Pakistan had made visa mandatory for the Afghan drivers of commercial vehicles. (“Torkham border shut as talks remain inconclusive,”The Express Tribune, 17 January 2024)
 
Editorial in Dawn on disruption of trade at Torkham
On 17 January, an editorial in Dawn titled “Torkham trade” underscored the closures at the Torkham border crossing between Pakistan and Afghanistan that have become “all too frequent,” disrupting trade and transportation. The recent closure stemmed from a requirement for Afghan transporters to provide visas in order to cross the border. With both sides imposing restrictions on transporters, there has been a “deadlock,” and negotiations so far have been unsuccessful. The editorial emphasized the broader context of this issue “from the larger lens of poor Pak-Afghan ties,” citing Pakistan’s concerns about the presence of TTP terrorists on Afghan soil. While acknowledging Pakistan’s right to ask those entering the country for travel documents, the editorial also notes that the border crossing process should be “transparent and streamlined.” Thus, Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) could address the “mistrust,” ensuring a smooth flow of trade traffic and “diplomatic” solutions to maintain regional connectivity. (“Torkham trade,” Dawn, 17 January 2024)
 
TTP asked to “revisit” its Pakistan strategy
On 16 January, The Express Tribune reported that the Afghan Taliban chief Haibatullah Akhundzada has asked the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to “revisit” its strategy towards Pakistan and decrease the use of violence. The message was delivered to the Pakistani authorities by the head of Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam-Fazl, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who recently visited Afghanistan and met with the Taliban chief. According to some sources that spoke with The Express Tribune, the Pakistani authorities are reviewing the message but immediate responses imply that they are not convinced that this would solve the problem. They are looking for a solution that would work in the longer run. Fazl also informed the authorities that the Taliban regime stressed on dialogue between Pakistan and the TTP and posited it as the only viable solution stating that “all Muslims are brethren”. The Taliban chief also offered its “good offices” to facilitate these talks as it had done earlier in 2021 leading to a ceasefire that the TTP unilaterally withdrew from in November 2022. The involvement of TTP in terror attacks in Pakistan has only seen a surge since then. (Kamran Yousaf, “Afghan Taliban chief asks TTP to ‘revisit’ Pak strategy,” The Express Tribune, 16 January 2024)
 
WORLD VIEW
An editorial on the transformative role of AI
On 17 January, Atta-ur-Rahman in an opinion in The News International titled “The world of AI,” analyzed the emergence of Artificial Intelligence as “a huge transformative force” that has led to massive developments in various fields including “technology, science, healthcare, finance, and many other sectors”. The technology has particularly transformed the healthcare sector by building capacity from “predictive analytics for disease diagnosis to personalized treatment plans.” In the sphere of education, it has brought adaptive learning platforms, like ‘DreamBox’, and created tools for automating administrative tasks. Now, even lawyers can benefit from ‘ROSS’, an AI-powered legal research tool and manufacturers can make use of ‘Siemens’ Industrial AI’. To harness the benefits of AI, a major project was prepared to establish AI centres across the country. Two such centres are in the process of being established, one in the International Centre for Chemical and Biological Studies (ICCBS) at the University of Karachi and the other in the Pak Austrian University of Applied Science and Technology (Pak-Austria Fachhochschule) in Haripur, Hazara. (Atta-ur-Rahman, “The world of AI,” The News International, 17 January 2024)

“According To Iranian Media, the order to attack targets in Pakistan was personally given by Iranian Supreme Leader. Iran's behaviour remains very disappointing but wider picture requires a thoughtful response.” -Sheikh Nabeel   “What is a bigger threat to Pakistan? Iran bombing and killing inside of sovereign territory or May 9?” -Salman Ahmad   “Pakistani forces have killed another young Baloch in Balochistan, today. Despite ongoing protests across Balochistan against BalochGenocide, Pakistan continues its oppressive actions.” -Jamal Baloch

“The hope for a democratic transition has been dented further by Saturday’s decision.” -An opinion in Dawn, “The judgement and after”